Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie in a simulated run-off, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll. Flavio Bolsonaro leads by just one percentage point.

In the first round, Lula would take around 46% of the vote in different scenarios, while Flavio Bolsonaro is predicted to have between 36% and 42%. Previous polls showed Lula with 43% to 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro with 33% to 40% of the vote.

Flavio Bolsonaro is currently leading Lula by 1 percentage point in a potential run-off, with 47.6% against 46.6%. The difference falls within the margin of error of 1 percentage point. In a February poll, they were virtually tied.

Market reactions were sensitive after former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son, Flavio. Lula, at 80, is aiming for a fourth nonconsecutive term as president, having defeated Bolsonaro in 2022. Run-offs occur when no candidate gets over 50% of valid votes.

AtlasIntel surveyed 5,028 individuals to obtain these results. The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. Both candidates have distinct proposals and support bases, setting the stage for a highly contested electoral race.

"I am confident in my platform and the support I receive from the people to lead Brazil into a new phase of prosperity and equality," stated Lula in response to the latest poll results.

The upcoming elections in Brazil are crucial for the country’s future direction. The close competition between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro highlights the polarized political landscape and the citizens’ diverse views and preferences.

This neck-and-neck race between two prominent figures in Brazilian politics marks a challenging period for the nation, with decisions looming that will significantly impact the economy and society’s well-being. The final outcome in the elections will shape Brazil’s trajectory for years to come.