SAO PAULO, Feb 25 – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads all first-round scenarios for October’s election but has seen his advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential run-off disappear, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday.

In five simulated first-round scenarios with different opponents, leftist Lula would secure between 43% and 47% of the vote. On the other hand, right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro is projected to obtain between 33% and 40% in four scenarios. The race seems close between the two main contenders.

Lula and Flavio are in a virtual tie for a potential run-off, both standing at around 46%-47%. This contrasts with a previous poll in January where Lula led with a 49.2% to 44.9% margin, showing a decline in his advantage over Flavio. The competition is fierce as the election approaches.

Despite leading against six other potential opponents, Lula would narrowly lose to Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas. This unexpected challenge adds uncertainty to the political landscape. Markets are closely monitoring these developments following Jair Bolsonaro’s public endorsement of his son Flavio, leading to fluctuations in the Brazilian currency and stock market.

With Lula, aged 80, vying for a fourth nonconsecutive term as president after defeating the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, the political scene is intense. The dynamics of a potential run-off election further emphasize the importance of each candidate securing a significant voter turnout. In Brazil, going to a second-round vote when no candidate reaches over 50% of valid votes is a well-established tradition in elections since 2002. AtlasIntel’s comprehensive survey, conducted between February 19-24 with a margin of error of 1 point, sheds light on the evolving political landscape.